Politics Will North Korea start a war?

[Kevin]

North Korea has been doing a lot of saber rattling lately with threads of war against the US.

In recent weeks they've cut off the 'emergency' phone line to South Korea, have said that they no longer recognize the peace agreement with South Korea and consider themselves to be in a state of war (remember, technically the Korean has never officially ended), denied access to Kaesong (an industrial city in North Korea that is a joint venture with South Korea to promote business ties) for South Korean workers & business owners, have moved missiles to their East coast to be in shorter range to US territories like Guam and to US allies like Japan and South Korea, have broadcast anti-US propaganda videos showing the destruction of the US White House, and increased their anti-US rhetoric.

In response the US has moved up the timeline for shipping anti-missile defenses to Guam, have added major military hardware to the joint US-South Korea military exercises that are currently going on (were pre-planned but the scope has been increased), and have essentially to North Korea that it is time to back off.

Thoughts? Is the feared Korean peninsula conflict finally going to happen? Is the new young leader of North Korea just trying to solidify his image to his followers? Will countries like Japan get caught in the metaphorical, and perhaps even literal, crossfire between North Korea & the US?

 

[Mirelly]

Kim Jong-un might be considered to be in a precarious position politically. At 29 (0r 30) years old he must be holding onto the reigns of power with white knuckles. Let's not forget that a ruler only rules with the consent of his army. We can only guess at the domestic political situation in Pyongyang; as well to wonder about last month's reported assassination attempt! The N. Korean military must be stuffed with aging hawks facing retirement without ever having fired an AK47 in battle. A young green "supreme" leader -- in loco "Eternal President", the very deceased Kim Il-sung -- might be very easily manipulated by the hawks in his administration.

N. Korea's domestic problems do not bear thinking about. Of its BFFs on the international stage, two -- China and Russia -- are economically booming and increasingly open societies; a factor which must make the propagandist lies about Western economic misery all the harder to maintain. The birth rate is collapsing which would cause sleepless nights for any dictator with a military amounting to 4% of its citizenry (and 20% of its fighting fit adult males); that is a recipe for economic disaster even if the birth rate isn't falling!

So I voted no and now I am wondering why. I feel that it is more likely the current posturing is designed to provoke a response. The N. Korean political and military leadership might be cynical, manipulative, paranoidally hostile, and many other things, but I doubt they are stupid. Starting a war would be suicidal. On the other hand if they can worry Seoul and Washington enough they might achieve a limited military engagement as the injured party.

In this respect I am glad you guys in USia no longer have Georgie Doubleya in the White House ... BO seems like a more restrained hand on the tiller of world peace in these squally twenty-teens political seas.

 

[Jetshroom]

They're never going to start a war against America. They're trying to provoke America into an attack. But, America won't ever attack them, because there's no benefit to doing so. At most, a peace keeping force will go in to ensure there's no major conflict between North and South Korea.

I think a lot of this posturing is being done simply because America doesn't consider NK to be a substantial threat. I think the far greater threat of war comes from China. China are actively trying to shut America out of the south pacific, and of course, America don't want to be shut out of the south pacific. But, China is an actual world power, and a threat to America should a conflict arise. I think NK are just trying to show it's people how "Strong" it is and how "Afraid" America is of NK. Fact is, they don't have the expertise to develop the weapons, rockets, airplanes, drones and kites that would be required to fight a war against America.