Tom
An Old Friend
I love reading timelines.
Science fiction timelines are so satisfying to me but I also love scientific ones.
Future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe
10,000
If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries was to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it will take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 meters. (One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter term threat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet).
500,000
The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded away completely.
1.4 million
The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 13,365 AU (0.2 light-years to the Sun) before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
100 million
Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming it cannot be averted.
1 billion
The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.
50 billion
If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidelocked, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.
10^12 (1 trillion)
Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars
10^15 (1 quadrillion)
Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits. By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.
10^200
Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they don't via the above process, through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on
time scales of 10^46 to 10^200 years.
10^10^10^56
Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the vacuum could generate, via inflation, new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.
Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is 10 10 115 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{115}}} 10^10^10^56, a number which, when multiplied by 10 10 10 56 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{10^{56}}}} 10^10^10^56, disappears into the rounding error, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the range predicted by string theory
Science fiction timelines are so satisfying to me but I also love scientific ones.
Future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe
10,000
If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries was to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it will take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 meters. (One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter term threat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet).
500,000
The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded away completely.
1.4 million
The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 13,365 AU (0.2 light-years to the Sun) before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
100 million
Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming it cannot be averted.
1 billion
The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.
50 billion
If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidelocked, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.
10^12 (1 trillion)
Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars
10^15 (1 quadrillion)
Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits. By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.
10^200
Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they don't via the above process, through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on
time scales of 10^46 to 10^200 years.
10^10^10^56
Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the vacuum could generate, via inflation, new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.
Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is 10 10 115 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{115}}} 10^10^10^56, a number which, when multiplied by 10 10 10 56 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{10^{56}}}} 10^10^10^56, disappears into the rounding error, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the range predicted by string theory